Committing to the wrong artificial delegate in a collective-risk dilemma is better than directly committing mistakes.

While autonomous artificial agents are assumed to perfectly execute the strategies they are programmed with, humans who design them may make mistakes. These mistakes may lead to a misalignment between the humans' intended goals and their agents' observed behavior, a problem of value alignment. Such an alignment problem may have particularly strong consequences when these autonomous systems are used in social contexts that involve some form of collective risk. By means of an evolutionary game theoretical model, we investigate whether errors in the configuration of artificial agents change the outcome of a collective-risk dilemma, in comparison to a scenario with no delegation. Delegation is here distinguished from no-delegation simply by the moment at which a mistake occurs: either when programming/choosing the agent (in case of delegation) or when executing the actions at each round of the game (in case of no-delegation). We find that, while errors decrease success rate, it is better to delegate and commit to a somewhat flawed strategy, perfectly executed by an autonomous agent, than to commit execution errors directly. Our model also shows that in the long-term, delegation strategies should be favored over no-delegation, if given the choice.

Direct and indirect treatment effects in the presence of semicompeting risks.

Semicompeting risks refer to the phenomenon that the terminal event (such as death) can censor the nonterminal event (such as disease progression) but not vice versa. The treatment effect on the terminal event can be delivered either directly following the treatment or indirectly through the nonterminal event. We consider 2 strategies to decompose the total effect into a direct effect and an indirect effect under the framework of mediation analysis in completely randomized experiments by adjusting the prevalence and hazard of nonterminal events, respectively. They require slightly different assumptions on cross-world quantities to achieve identifiability. We establish asymptotic properties for the estimated counterfactual cumulative incidences and decomposed treatment effects. We illustrate the subtle difference between these 2 decompositions through simulation studies and two real-data applications in the Supplementary Materials.

An integrative framework for mapping the psychological landscape of risk perception.

We vary greatly in our perception of risk, not just because of differences between risks themselves, but also because of individual, contextual and cultural differences too. To better understand and predict responses to risk, we need to (a) integrate these components, combining approaches from different psychological disciplines and (b) also consider risk tolerance - how individuals trade-off between risks and benefits. We therefore developed an ICONS (individual, contextual, cognitive, social) framework; using it across two empirical studies (n = 4228) to examine how individuals perceive and respond to the quotidian risks associated with consumer products. Three dimensions underlined risk perceptions: benefits, dread and individual responsibility. Risk tolerance was typically predicted by interactions between individual (demographic, cultural worldview, personality) and contextual (product type/category, harm information) factors. In turn, perceived dread, benefits and individual differences shaped how likely participants were to communicate risk information. Our results demonstrate for the first time how the interaction between individual, cognitive (risk tolerance, intensity), contextual, and social (risk communication) factors is key to understanding and predicting risk perceptions. Together, our findings help explain why societal responses to risks are often difficult to predict and have implications for the spread, and amplification, of risk information.

[Association, differences, and applications of three commonly used statistical indicators: risk ratio, hazard ratio, and odds ratio].

Relative Risk (RR), Hazard Ratio (HR), and Odds Ratio (OR) are commonly used statistical measures in the field of public health to assess the magnitude of the effect of exposure factors on outcomes. These indicators have different calculation principles and implications in public health. However, a few researchers misused or misinterpreted RR, HR, and OR values when interpreting study results. Therefore, this article explores the relationships and differences among these measures, as well as the correct selection and application of RR, HR, and OR in both cohort study and case-control study.

Factor modification in the association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and liver cancer risk in a nationwide cohort.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The effect modification by smoking and menopausal status in the association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and liver cancer risk has not been reported. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included 4.486 million cancer-free individuals among those who underwent national cancer screening in 2010 and were followed up until December 2017. We conducted analyses in populations that excluded people with chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C and liver cirrhosis (Model I) and that included those diseases (Model III). HDL-C level was classified into eight groups at 10-mg/dL intervals. Liver cancer risk by HDL-C was measured using adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During follow-up, 18 795 liver cancers in Model I and 20 610 liver cancers in Model III developed. In Model I, low HDL-C levels (aHR 1.83; 95% CI 1.65-2.04) and extremely high HDL-C levels (aHR 1.24; 95% CI 1.10-1.40) were associated with an increased liver cancer risk compared with a moderate HDL-C level of 50-59mg/dL. This association was similar in both men and women with larger effect size in men (aHR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.70-2.15). The hazardous association between low HDL-C and liver cancer risk was remarkable in current smokers (aHR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.84-2.60) and in pre-menopausal women (aHR, 2.91; 95% CI, 1.29-6.58) compared with post-menopausal women (aHR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.10-1.93). This association was similarly observed in Model III. CONCLUSIONS: Low and extremely high HDL-C levels were associated with an increased liver cancer risk. The unfavourable association between low HDL-C and liver cancer was remarkable in smokers and pre-menopausal women.

Association of hypertension and depression with mortality: an exploratory study with interaction and mediation models.

BACKGROUND: The association of hypertension and depression with mortality has not been fully understood. We aimed to explore the possible independent or joint association of hypertension and depression with mortality. Their interaction effects on mortality and possible mediating role were also investigated. METHODS: Associations of hypertension, depression, and their interaction with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality were evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. The mediation analysis was conducted with a Sobel test. RESULTS: A total of 35152 participants were included in the final analysis. Hypertension and depression were independently associated with increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. The co-existence of hypertension and depression resulted in a 1.7-fold [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.1] increase in all-cause mortality and a 2.3-fold (95% CI: 1.4-3.7) increase in CVD mortality compared to those with neither of them. Hypertension and depression showed no significant multiplicative (P for interaction, 0.587) and additive interaction (P for relative excess risk of interaction, 0.243; P for Interaction on additive scale, 0.654) on all-cause mortality, as well as on CVD mortality. Depression did not mediate the relationship between hypertension and all-cause (Z=1.704, P=0.088) and CVD mortality (Z=1.547, P=0.122). Hypertension did not mediate the relationship between all-cause and CVD mortality as well. CONCLUSION: Hypertension and depression were related to all-cause and CVD mortality independently and the co-existence of them increased the risk of mortality. However, there is no interaction effect of them on mortality, and hypertension or depression did not mediate the association of each other with mortality.

Randomized trial of screening for preterm birth in low-risk women - the preterm birth screening study.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. It is unclear whether the introduction of a universal transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening program in women at low risk for preterm delivery is associated with a reduction in the frequency of preterm birth. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the introduction of a midtrimester universal transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening program in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies without prior preterm delivery would reduce the rate of preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation. STUDY DESIGN: This study was a multicenter nonblinded randomized trial of screening of asymptomatic singleton pregnancies without prior spontaneous preterm birth, who were randomized to either cervical length screening program (ie, intervention group) or no screening (ie, control group). Participants were randomized at the time of their routine anatomy scan between 18 0/7 and 23 6/7 weeks of gestation. Women randomized in the screening group received cervical length measurement. Those who were found to have cervical length ≤25 mm were offered 200 mg vaginal progesterone daily along with cervical pessary. The primary outcome was preterm birth at <37 weeks. The risk of primary outcome was quantified by the relative risk with 95% confidence interval, and was based on the intention-to-screen principle. RESULTS: A total of 1334 asymptomatic women with singleton pregnancies and without prior preterm birth, were included in the trial. Out of the 675 women randomized in the transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening group, 13 (1.9%) were found to have transvaginal ultrasound cervical length ≤25 mm during the screening. Preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation occurred in 48 women in the transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening group (7.5%), and 54 women in the control group (8.7%) (relative risk, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-1.25). Women randomized in the transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening group had no significant differences in the incidence of preterm birth at less than 34, 32, 30, 28, and 24 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSION: The introduction of a universal transvaginal ultrasound cervical length screening program at 18 0/6 to 23 6/7 weeks of gestation in singleton pregnancies without prior spontaneous preterm birth, with treatment for those with cervical length ≤25 mm, did not result in significant lower incidence of preterm delivery than the incidence without the screening program.

High burden of human papillomavirus infection among men in Guangzhou, South China: Implications for HPV vaccination strategies.

The epidemiological and clinical aspects of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection in women have been extensively studied. However, there is a lack of information regarding HPV characteristics in males. In this study, we conducted a retrospective and observational study of 3737 consecutive male individuals attending outpatient clinics of Guangdong Women and Children Hospital from 2012 to 2023 in Guangzhou, South China, to determine the age- and genotype-specific prevalence of HPV in men. The results showed the overall prevalence of HPV among men was 42.15% (1575/3737), with variations ranging from 29.55% to 81.31% across distinct diagnostic populations. Low-risk HPV6 (15.47%), HPV11 (8.94%), and high-risk HPV52 (5.51%) were the most common types. The annual HPV prevalence decreased significantly (Z = -3.882, p < .001), ranging from 31.44% to 52.90%. 28.77% (1075/3737) of men manifested infection with a singular HPV type, predominantly identified as a low-risk type. The age-specific distribution of HPV infections revealed distinctive peaks in the < 25 y age group (47.60%, 208/437) and the 40-44 y age group (44.51%, 154/346). Notably, the positive rate of Chlamydia trachomatis was significantly higher among HPV-positive individuals in comparison to HPV-negatives (16.14% vs. 11.25%, p < .05). Our findings reveal a substantial prevalence of HPV infection among outpatient men in Guangzhou, South China. It is recommended to consider the inclusion of HPV vaccination for adolescent males in national immunization schedules, once an adequate supply of vaccines is accessible.

Using risk of crime detection to study change in mechanisms of decision making.

Perceptions of crime detection risk (e.g., risk of arrest) play an integral role in the criminal decision-making process. Yet, the sources of variation in those perceptions are not well understood. Do individuals respond to changes in legal policy or is perception of detection risk shaped like other perceptions-by experience, heuristics, and with biases? We applied a developmental perspective to study self-reported perception of detection risk. We test four hypotheses against data from the Dunedin Longitudinal Study (analytic sample of N = 985 New Zealanders), a study that spans 20 years of development (Ages 18-38, years 1990-2011). We reach four conclusions: (1) people form their perception of detection risk early in the life course; (2) perception of detection risk may be general rather than unique to each crime type; (3) population-level perceptions are stable between adolescence and adulthood; but (4) people update their perceptions when their life circumstances change. The importance of these findings for future theoretical and policy work is considered. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Stochastic portfolio optimization: A regret-based approach on volatility risk measures: An empirical evidence from The New York stock market.

Portfolio optimization involves finding the ideal combination of securities and shares to reduce risk and increase profit in an investment. To assess the impact of risk in portfolio optimization, we utilize a significant volatility risk measure series. Behavioral finance biases play a critical role in portfolio optimization and the efficient allocation of stocks. Regret, within the realm of behavioral finance, is the feeling of remorse that causes hesitation in making significant decisions and avoiding actions that could lead to poor investment choices. This behavior often leads investors to hold onto losing investments for extended periods, refusing to acknowledge mistakes and accept losses. Ironically, by evading regret, investors may miss out on potential opportunities. in this paper, our purpose is to compare investment scenarios in the decision-making process and calculate the amount of regret obtained in each scenario. To accomplish this, we consider volatility risk metrics and utilize stochastic optimization to identify the most suitable scenario that not only maximizes yield in the investment portfolio and minimizes risk, but also minimizes resulting regret. To convert each multi-objective model into a single objective, we employ the augmented epsilon constraint (AEC) method to establish the Pareto efficiency frontier. As a means of validating the solution of this method, we analyze data spanning 20, 50, and 100 weeks from 150 selected stocks in the New York market based on fundamental analysis. The results show that the selection of the mad risk measure in the time horizon of 100 weeks with a regret rate of 0.104 is the most appropriate research scenario. this article recommended that investors diversify their portfolios by investing in a variety of assets. This can help reduce risk and increase overall returns and improve financial literacy among investors.

Modelling spatiotemporal variation in under-five malaria risk in Ghana in 2016-2021.

BACKGROUND: Ghana is among the top 10 highest malaria burden countries, with about 20,000 children dying annually, 25% of which were under five years. This study aimed to produce interactive web-based disease spatial maps and identify the high-burden malaria districts in Ghana. METHODS: The study used 2016-2021 data extracted from the routine health service nationally representative and comprehensive District Health Information Management System II (DHIMS2) implemented by the Ghana Health Service. Bayesian geospatial modelling and interactive web-based spatial disease mapping methods were employed to quantify spatial variations and clustering in malaria risk across 260 districts. For each district, the study simultaneously mapped the observed malaria counts, district name, standardized incidence rate, and predicted relative risk and their associated standard errors using interactive web-based visualization methods. RESULTS: A total of 32,659,240 malaria cases were reported among children < 5 years from 2016 to 2021. For every 10% increase in the number of children, malaria risk increased by 0.039 (log-mean 0.95, 95% credible interval = - 13.82-15.73) and for every 10% increase in the number of males, malaria risk decreased by 0.075, albeit not statistically significant (log-mean - 1.82, 95% credible interval = - 16.59-12.95). The study found substantial spatial and temporal differences in malaria risk across the 260 districts. The predicted national relative risk was 1.25 (95% credible interval = 1.23, 1.27). The malaria risk is relatively the same over the entire year. However, a slightly higher relative risk was recorded in 2019 while in 2021, residing in Keta, Abuakwa South, Jomoro, Ahafo Ano South East, Tain, Nanumba North, and Tatale Sanguli districts was associated with the highest malaria risk ranging from a relative risk of 3.00 to 4.83. The district-level spatial patterns of malaria risks changed over time. CONCLUSION: This study identified high malaria risk districts in Ghana where urgent and targeted control efforts are required. Noticeable changes were also observed in malaria risk for certain districts over some periods in the study. The findings provide an effective, actionable tool to arm policymakers and programme managers in their efforts to reduce malaria risk and its associated morbidity and mortality in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 3.2 for limited public health resource settings, where universal intervention across all districts is practically impossible.

Polygenic risk associated with Alzheimer's disease and other traits influences genes involved in T cell signaling and activation.

Introduction: T cells, known for their ability to respond to an enormous variety of pathogens and other insults, are increasingly recognized as important mediators of pathology in neurodegeneration and other diseases. T cell gene expression phenotypes can be regulated by disease-associated genetic variants. Many complex diseases are better represented by polygenic risk than by individual variants. Methods: We first compute a polygenic risk score (PRS) for Alzheimer's disease (AD) using genomic sequencing data from a cohort of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and age-matched controls, and validate the AD PRS against clinical metrics in our cohort. We then calculate the PRS for several autoimmune disease, neurological disorder, and immune function traits, and correlate these PRSs with T cell gene expression data from our cohort. We compare PRS-associated genes across traits and four T cell subtypes. Results: Several genes and biological pathways associated with the PRS for these traits relate to key T cell functions. The PRS-associated gene signature generally correlates positively for traits within a particular category (autoimmune disease, neurological disease, immune function) with the exception of stroke. The trait-associated gene expression signature for autoimmune disease traits was polarized towards CD4+ T cell subtypes. Discussion: Our findings show that polygenic risk for complex disease and immune function traits can have varying effects on T cell gene expression trends. Several PRS-associated genes are potential candidates for therapeutic modulation in T cells, and could be tested in in vitro applications using cells from patients bearing high or low polygenic risk for AD or other conditions.

Longer and better lives for patients with atrial fibrillation: the 9th AFNET/EHRA consensus conference.

AIMS: Recent trial data demonstrate beneficial effects of active rhythm management in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and support the concept that a low arrhythmia burden is associated with a low risk of AF-related complications. The aim of this document is to summarize the key outcomes of the 9th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA). METHODS AND RESULTS: Eighty-three international experts met in Münster for 2 days in September 2023. Key findings are as follows: (i) Active rhythm management should be part of the default initial treatment for all suitable patients with AF. (ii) Patients with device-detected AF have a low burden of AF and a low risk of stroke. Anticoagulation prevents some strokes and also increases major but non-lethal bleeding. (iii) More research is needed to improve stroke risk prediction in patients with AF, especially in those with a low AF burden. Biomolecules, genetics, and imaging can support this. (iv) The presence of AF should trigger systematic workup and comprehensive treatment of concomitant cardiovascular conditions. (v) Machine learning algorithms have been used to improve detection or likely development of AF. Cooperation between clinicians and data scientists is needed to leverage the potential of data science applications for patients with AF. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with AF and a low arrhythmia burden have a lower risk of stroke and other cardiovascular events than those with a high arrhythmia burden. Combining active rhythm control, anticoagulation, rate control, and therapy of concomitant cardiovascular conditions can improve the lives of patients with AF.

Tumor growth manifested in two-fifths of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma patients during active surveillance: data from a tertiary center in China.

Purpose: To assess tumor growth using tumor doubling rate (TDR) during active surveillance (AS) in China. Methods: Between January 2016 and June 2020, a total of 219 patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) (aged 23-75 years) were consecutively enrolled in the AS program. Results: Four sections of TDR, >0.5, 0.1~0.5, -0.1~0.1 and <-0.1, corresponded with four categories of tumor volume kinetics: rapid growth, slow growth, stable, and decreased size. We found that 10.5% of PTMCs exhibited rapid growth, 33.33% exhibited slow growth, 26.48% were stable, and 29.68% decreased in size. Tumor growth was associated with two factors: age and volume of PTMC at diagnosis. 85.72% of elderly patients (≥ 61 years old) had tumors that remained stable or even shrank and rapidly growing tumors were not found in them. When the volume was small (≤14.13 mm3), the proportion of rapid growth was high (41.67%), whereas when the volume was large (> 179.5 mm3), the proportion of non-growth was 68.75%. Conclusion: TDR may be a better metric for evaluating tumor growth in observational PTMCs. A certain proportion of PTMCs grow during the period of AS and tumor growth was associated with age and volume of PTMC at initial diagnosis. Therefore, how to block tumor growth during the AS period, especially for young patients and patients with early-stage PTMC (size ≤ 5 mm), will be a new challenge.